Good luck doesn’t mean you made good decisions

As originally appeared in The Jerusalem Post on July 31, 2026.

“Luck is a very thin wire between survival and disaster, and not many people can keep their balance on it.” — Hunter S. Thompson

In this week’s Torah portion, it says, “The One Who feeds you manna in the desert…in order to test you” (Devarim 8:16). The commentators all ask the obvious question: What is the test? According to the Sforno, the test is to see if the Jews would still follow the Torah when they did not have to worry about their livelihood.

Rabbi Yissocher Frand expands on this: “Yes, there is a great test in ‘bread raining down from heaven.’ Affluence without effort is a dangerous thing. It comes with a great amount of leisure time and freedom of action. What do we do with that leisure time and that freedom of action? Do we use our leisure time and freedom of action to taste the forbidden? This is the great test of the manna. We are all aware of the test of poverty. We are all aware of the trials and tribulations of being poor. However, says Sforno, affluence also comes with great temptations. It puts a tremendous responsibility on a person. This is the test of the manna, and it is the test for many Jews in these affluent times.”

Luck runs out

A few years ago, I mentioned a fascinating article on Forbes.com written by Ryan Frailich. His topic was “How ‘Resulting’ Impacts Your Personal Finances,” and he started the article with a question:

“I’m at a bar with a friend, and we’ve each had too much to drink. I schedule a car to pick me up via Uber and leave. Unbeknownst to me, my friend decides he’s fine to drive himself home despite the six beers we each consumed. On my drive home, my Uber was sideswiped as we passed through an intersection, leaving me with months of physical therapy. He drives himself home and parks, slightly crooked, in front of his house. Who made a better decision upon leaving the bar? I made the better decision and had a worse outcome. He made a poor decision and had a positive outcome. Put another way, he got lucky and I was unlucky.”

While the outcome of a bad decision may work out fantastically on a one-off basis, the chances of continually making bad decisions and having them keep working out are negligible.

Frailich continues: “All around us, people confuse the results of a decision with the decision-making process that went into it. This is the concept of ‘resulting,’ or drawing a conclusion about the soundness of a decision based on the outcome, rather than whether there was a sound decision-making process that gave you the best chance of a favorable outcome.”

Traditional investments

When it comes to investing, it is the cumulative impact of sound decisions and their mostly favorable outcomes that provides a path to growing wealth. Just as people made huge amounts of money in 2000 before the tech bubble burst and then gave all their profits back, so too, I fear that portfolios invested only in artificial intelligence and chip stocks may meet the same fate.

Keep in mind that I am not opposed to investing in these sectors. I am a big believer in AI. It’s just that, like every other investment fad we have been through, they tend not to end all that well.

A few months ago, I met with a prospective client who was a bit obnoxious. When a call starts with the question, “What can you do for me?” without the person even giving me their name, I know there’s trouble ahead.

He said that he sees my ads and wanted to know why he should open an account with me. I told him what I do, and he said, “You know, I’ve recently been investing in chip stocks like Intel and have made a ton of money. In fact, all of my money is invested in those stocks. What do you think of that?”

My answer was that he should be careful. Nothing goes up in a straight line forever, and there could be trouble ahead. I mentioned diversification—my usual spiel. He laughed and said it wasn’t relevant and that he would do much better himself.

Since our discussion, there has been a decline of more than 20% in those stocks. That doesn’t mean they won’t go back up. It means that a bad approach worked for a while, but you shouldn’t assume you’re the exception to decades and decades of investing data.

When it comes to investing, you may hit it big on an investment or two, but over time, your luck will almost certainly run out. The time-tested approach to growing wealth is to use quality investments and maintain a long-term horizon. This is the cumulative effect of solid decision-making.

Don’t focus on one bad decision that worked out well and think that it is the secret sauce to success. It’s not. In fact, it’s a terrible way to make any decision and an even worse way to run your finances.

The information contained in this article reflects the opinion of the author and not necessarily the opinion of Portfolio Resources Group, Inc. or its affiliates.

Aaron Katsman is the author of Retirement GPS: How to Navigate Your Way to A Secure Financial Future with Global Investing (McGraw-Hill), and is a licensed financial professional both in the United States and Israel, and helps people who open investment accounts in the United States. Securities are offered through Portfolio Resources Group, Inc. (www.prginc.net). Member FINRA, SIPC, MSRB, SIFMA, FSI. For more information, call (02) 624-0995 visit www.aaronkatsman.com or email aaron@lighthousecapital.co.il.
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